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First successes of the drastic measures?
A German research team evaluated the latest data on the growth of new infections with the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. It was found that the rate of new COVID-19 diseases has decreased significantly since Friday, March 20, 2020.
Researchers at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz have analyzed the number of cases of new COVID 19 diseases in recent weeks. While there was an average new disease growth of 27 percent before March 20, 2020, the growth of new diseases fell to an average of 14 percent per day since March 20. The team sees the Federal Government's drastic measures as the reason for the drop in the growth rate.
Market research methods converted
After evaluating Johns Hopkins data, economists recognize a clear effect of the measures to reduce social contacts. The team applied a statistical method commonly used in labor market research to the numbers published by Johns Hopkins University on the prevalence of Covid-19. Market researchers recognized that the rate of growth of the Covid-19 diseases caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Germany has almost halved.
After delays due to the incubation period, the time to see a doctor and the transmission of any test results, the research team is now seeing the first effects on the spread. But there is no reason to give the all-clear yet. "A growth rate of 14 percent is also a cause for concern," explains economist Professor Dr. Klaus Waele. "But the containment measures have apparently already significantly slowed the progress of the corona epidemic," said the professor. It is very possible that we will see further effects in the coming days.
RKI or Johns Hopkins - Which dates are more accurate?
The Robert Koch Institute and Johns Hopkins University data are often used in Germany to assess the current Covid 19 situation. The research team decided to use the data from Johns Hopkins University. While the Robert Koch Institute only collects data from health authorities in Germany, Johns Hopkins University uses data from several sources. These may not be as reliable as the RKI data, but they are more up to date.
Limitations of the analysis
"In any case, there is uncertainty as to how well the data sources describe reality," emphasizes W absolute. Nevertheless, it is almost impossible that the observed trend flattening does not correspond to reality. "Due to the sustained sharp decline in growth rates, the statistical certainty of our results is more than 99.9 percent," emphasizes the economics professor. Deviations or accidental influences that cause such flattening are not conceivable. Factors such as available test capacities or measurement errors were also negligible. (vb)
Author and source information
This text corresponds to the requirements of the medical literature, medical guidelines and current studies and has been checked by medical doctors.
Graduate editor (FH) Volker Blasek
- Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz: Growth rate of Covid 19 diseases in Germany has almost halved since last Friday (published: March 26th, 2020), uni-mainz.de